The Federal Reserve doesn't expect a quick rebound.
The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.
The World Bank is less optimistic than the Fed.
The bank expects the global economy to shrink 5.2 percent this year, making it one of the most severe downturns in the past 150 years. Never before have so many countries entered a recession at the same time.
Many economists expect the recovery to begin in Q3.
In a recent survey of 60 prominent academic and business economists, The Wall Street Journal found 68.4 percent expect the recovery to begin Q3/20. Just over a fifth, 22.8%, said it had already begun in Q2/20.
The spot price for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark for light, sweet crude, averaged $37.32 per barrel the first week of June, up from $15.71 the first week of May.
Baker Hughes reports that the North American rig count fell to 279 the week ending June 5, the lowest level on record. During the Fracking Bust of ’14 – ’17, the rig count bottomed out at 404.
HOUSTON EMPLOYMENT UPDATE
The nine-county Metro Houston area has lost 330,100 jobs since the economy shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Partnership calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) data.
Today's Losses in Perspective
The region lost 221,000 jobs during the ’80s energy bust, or one in every seven jobs. Houston’s economy is significantly larger now, so the 330,100 jobs lost in the COVID-19 recession represents a smaller share of employment, about one in ten jobs in the region.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The region’s unemployment rate, as low as 3.9 percent in February, rose to 14.2 percent in April. The rates are not seasonally adjusted. Again, TWC has likely understated local unemployment.
POPULATION TRENDS
Houston reached a milestone last year. The nine-county metro area topped 7.0 million residents, according to data released this spring by the U.S. Census Bureau. The announcement went largely unnoticed because the nation’s attention was focused on the COVID-19 pandemic.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 June 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 13, 2022
CPI increases continue to sizzle like this weekend’s temperature, putting consumers in a worse mood than Texas Rangers fans (with their 9.5 games back $500 million middle infield).
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 February 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2024
The out-of-consensus start to the year for economic data continued with a slip in retail sales and industrial production followed by a startling 14.8% drop in housing starts during January.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 10, 2020
The Federal Reserve announced a series of measures this morning that are intended to assist households, businesses and state & local governments as they cope with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 outbreak.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 28, 2020
It may be a holiday-shortened week, but there have been as many developments and economic indicators packed into three days as we can recall seeing in any other week this year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 November 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 07, 2022
Employers continued to add jobs at a steady clip in October, demonstrating the labor market remains tight and the FOMC will continue to tighten policy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 August 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 17, 2019
Markets gyrated this week as the spread between the ten- and two-year Treasury\'s turned negative for the first time since 2007. Financial markets seem to expect that the sharp slowdown in growth overseas will soon spread to the United States.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 August 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 22, 2024
Inflation continues its gradual descent, and business optimism has trended higher amid cooler input price growth and steady consumer spending.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 29 September 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 02, 2023
On the housing front, new home sales dropped more than expected in August, though an upward revision to July results left us about where everyone expected us to be year-to-date.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 January 2025
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 20, 2025
The Consumer Price Index ended the year at 2.9% year-over-year, which is a minor improvement from its 3.1% rate in January 2024 and points to stalled progress on the road back to the Federal Reserve\'s 2% inflation target.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 August 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 29, 2024
Home sales also have been slow to respond. Existing home sales inched up during July alongside a modest dip in mortgage rates.
