This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 October 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Sep 29, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 October 2020

U.S. - Recovery Keeps Trudging Along

  • In what was a jam-packed week of economic data, the jobs report, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus and the president’s positive COVID-19 test result commanded markets’ attention.
  • Nonfarm employers added 661K jobs in September. But with layoff announcements coming from household-name companies this week, attention has already shifted to the tenuous labor market recovery ahead.
  • Personal incomes faltered in August, due almost entirely to the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits at the end of July. Personal spending, however, eked out another gain.

 

Global - China Continues to Lead the Global Recovery

China’s economy continues to rebound from the COVID-19 shock and lead the global economic recovery. This week, the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs outperformed relative to expectations, providing additional evidence of a more robust economic recovery in China.

 

Economic and Sentiment Data in India Show Life

This week, India’s manufacturing PMI recorded one of the steepest rises on record, jumping to 56.8 in September, a noteworthy rise from August. In addition, India’s current account as a percentage of GDP flipped to a surplus in Q2, the first quarterly surplus since 2005.




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The headline and core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis in January, both above consensus estimates. The increase in the PPI suggests that input prices for businesses are still climbing.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 06 March 2020

An inter-meeting rate cut by the FOMC did little to stem financial market volatility, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases continued to climb.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 March 2020

Financial conditions tightened sharply this week as concerns over the coronavirus and the economic fallout of containment efforts mounted.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 May 2020

April nonfarm payrolls confirmed what we already knew—the labor market is collapsing. By the survey week of April 12, net employment had fallen by 20,500,000 jobs.

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The U.S. economy is growing at a healthy clip. Real GDP expanded by 2.3% in the fourth quarter, bringing the annual growth rate to 2.8% in 2024. For context, the economy grew at an average annual rate of 2.4% during the 2010-2019 economic expansion.

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Daily life came to a screeching halt this week as governments, businesses and consumers took drastic steps to halt the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Despite a few misses on the headline numbers, economic data this week highlighted a theme of demand continuing to outstrip supply and ongoing slack in the labor market.

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The fact that capital goods shipments surprised on the upside was one of the few things that went right in this week\'s durable goods report.

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The U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations. Employers added 272K net new jobs in May, which was stronger than even the most bullish forecaster among 77 submissions to the Bloomberg survey.

September 2020 Economy At A Glance

A March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found most exploration firms need West Texas Inter-mediate (WTI) at $49 per barrel or higher to profitably drill a well.


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