U.S. - Parsing Economic Data while Awaiting Election Results
- As of this writing, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election is undecided. Joe Biden, however, appears likely to become president based off of his growing lead in several key states.
- Total payrolls rose by 638K in October. Growth continues to slow, however. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9%.
- The FOMC made no major changes to monetary policy, although did acknowledge the downside risk of rising COVID cases throughout the country.
- The ISM manufacturing index soared to 59.3 in October. By contrast, the ISM services index declined to 56.6.
Global - Global Focus Turns to Central Bank Announcements
- Global central banks were back in the spotlight this week, with several central banks easing monetary policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its Cash Rate and three-year yield target to 0.10%, and increased bond purchases by A$100B of five-to-ten year government bonds over the next six months.
- The Bank of England eased monetary policy further, expanding its asset purchase program by a larger-than-expected £150B. Separately, U.K. Chancellor Sunak announced an extension of the government’s salary support program until the end of March 2021. Elsewhere, the Norges Bank also announced policy this week, leaving its key rate unchanged at zero.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2019
Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 March 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 16, 2022
Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine continues to consume nearly all media attention and has created a level of volatility that is not yet reflected in the data released this week.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2023
The Leading Economic Index (“LEI”) continued to flash contraction as early signs of labor market weakening are starting to emerge. Meanwhile, a batch of housing data confirmed that a full-fledged housing market recovery is still far off.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 26 July 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 30, 2024
Economic growth defied expectations in the second quarter. Real GDP expanded at a 2.8% annualized rate, a sizable acceleration from 1.4% in Q1.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 05, 2022
More job seekers also lifted the participation rate to 62.4% and thus easing some tightness in the job market even as payrolls expanded.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 28, 2023
Existing home sales declined 0.7% in January, while new home sales leaped 7.2%. Real personal spending shot higher in January, and solid growth in discretionary spending suggests continued consumer resilience.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 26, 2021
This week\'s lighter economic calendar allowed forecasters more time to assess the implications from the prior week\'s blowout retail sales report.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 25, 2020
Initial jobless claims rose to just over 1.4 million for the week ending July 18. Continuing claims fell to about 16.2 million. Initial claims edging higher suggests that the resurgence of COVID-19 may be taking a toll on the labor market recovery.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 13 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 18, 2022
While small business enthusiasm appears to have stalled, as owners are concerned about their ability to continue to pass on higher costs to consumers, cautious enthusiasm around rookie Jeremy Pena’s start persists.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 28 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 03, 2023
U.S. Economy expands but at a weak rate. Regional bank failures cause corporate investment spreads to widen again. House Republicans pass bills that affect the debt ceiling.
