This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 October 2020

By: Taro Chellaram /Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report/Oct 12, 2020

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 09 October 2020

U.S. - Slow Data Week Puts More Focus on Policy

  • Weekly first time unemployment claims highlighted an extraordinarily slow week for economic news. Jobless claims fell slightly but continuing claims fell by one million.
  • The ISM non-manufacturing survey handily beat expectation, rising 0.9 points to 57.8.
  • Job openings, as tallied by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ JOLTS survey, fell by 200,000 to 6.49 million in August.
  • The nation’s trade deficit widened sharply to $67.1 billion in August, as consumer spending on goods has rebounded well ahead of many other nations.

 

Global - RBA on Hold; Canadian Job Gains Accelerate

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate and three-year yield target unchanged at 0.25%, as expected, but reiterated that fiscal and monetary support will be required for some time. Following the RBA meeting, Australia released its fiscal plan, which is now expected to push the cash deficit to a record high.
  • Mexican inflation remained above the central bank’s upper bound inflation target of 4% in September, while Brazil’s September IPCA consumer prices rose to 3.14% year-over-year. Elsewhere, Canadian employment growth unexpectedly accelerated in September, while the unemployment rate slid to 9.0%.



The Regional Breakdown Of A Labor Market In Meltdown

Employment fell in all 50 states and 43 states saw their unemployment rate rise to a record in April. The damage is already hard to fathom-a 28% unemployment rate in Nevada and still another month of job losses ahead.

June 2020 Economy At A Glance

The Fed expects to hold interest rates near zero through the end of this year, perhaps well into next year, and maybe even into ’22.

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The resiliency of the U.S. consumer was also on display, as total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.3% in October, boosted, in part, by a 1.3% jump in motor vehicles & parts and a 4.1% rise at gasoline stations.

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The release of the transcript of President Trump\'s phone conversation with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the whistle blower complaint overshadowed most of this week\'s economic reports and took bond yields modestly lower.

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The ISM non-manufacturing index jumped 11.7 points to 57.1, reflecting the broadening re-opening of the economy.

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Optimism soared this week on hopes of a forthcoming trade deal, as equity markets hit all-time highs and the yield curve steepened.

How Long Can US Businesses Remain Shut Down?

The sudden stop in economic activity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic means that many businesses will need to rely on their cash reserves to survive the next few months.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 23 September 2022

The FOMC raised the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 bps for the third consecutive time. The housing market continues to buckle under the pressure of higher mortgage rates.

This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 February 2023

Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.

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We got our first look at Q1 GDP, which downshifted to a 1.6% annualized pace and was accompanied by a hot core PCE deflator reading.


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