Census numbers dropped this week, and although Houston was the second fastest growing major city in the U.S. the last decade, at 9.8% (Phoenix was first at 11.2%), we didn’t quite catch Chicago to officially take over as the 3rd largest city in the U.S. We’ll get ’em next time. Meanwhile, the CPI data this week showed that the sharpest monthly consumer price hikes may be behind us, but inflation is not about to quietly fade away.
Ongoing supply constraints for products and labor, rising costs and renewed risks around COVID weighed on small business optimism in July and on the Wells Fargo Economics team’s outlook for growth, which includes an expectation for a 7.3% annual rate rise in Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) for Q3, down from 8.3% before the COVID Delta variant began its current run.
That is expected to pull PCE back to 8.7% for the year, versus the prior 9.0% expectation. The general outlook remains positive as households have accumulated over $2T in excess savings on their balance sheets and net worth has risen across all income groups.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 14, 2020
In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 July 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 27, 2022
July\'s NAHB Housing Market Index dropped 12 points to 55, the second largest monthly decline on record behind April 2020\'s pandemic-induced collapse.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 November 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 08, 2023
Although payroll growth is easing, the labor market remains relatively tight. The unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in October, slightly higher than the cycle low of 3.4% first hit in January 2023, but still low compared to historical averages.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 20, 2023
Inflation in the U.K. receded for the third straight month in January, with the headline rate coming in at 10.1% year-over-year. In bad news, this is still five times the Bank of England\'s 2% target.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 07 June 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 11, 2024
The U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations. Employers added 272K net new jobs in May, which was stronger than even the most bullish forecaster among 77 submissions to the Bloomberg survey.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2024
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was a bit firm in April, rising 0.5% amid higher services prices, though it did come with slight downward revisions to prior month\'s data.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 October 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 10, 2024
The separate survey of households shows employment rising 430K and unemployment falling 281K in September, leading the unemployment rate to unexpectedly tick down a tenth to 4.1%.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 September 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 20, 2022
Financial markets reacted in a zig-zag pattern to this week\'s economic data ahead of the next FOMC meeting. Price pressure is still not showing the sustained slowdown the Fed needs before it takes its foot off the throttle of tighter policy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 August 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 22, 2024
Inflation continues its gradual descent, and business optimism has trended higher amid cooler input price growth and steady consumer spending.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 June 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 20, 2022
After last week\'s stronger-than-expected CPI, less surprising was the 75 point rate increase put forth by the Fed.
