The first economic data released this week in the United States reinforced the theme that labor supply and demand are struggling to come into balance. Total job openings declined modestly in August, but at 10.4 million, they remain roughly 50% above their pre-COVID levels. Despite the decline, a few sectors saw job openings increase, such as transportation, warehousing and utilities. Perhaps more interesting, the quit rate jumped 0.2 percentage points in August and hit the highest level on record (see chart). Quits increased the most in accommodation & food services, which makes sense given that significant upward pressure on wages in that industry is likely keeping competition for workers intense. A high quit rate is typically a sign that workers are confident they can voluntarily leave their current job and find gainful employment elsewhere. Based off of the weak labor supply numbers in last week's September employment report, we doubt the September job openings and labor turnover data to be released next month will show supply and demand reaching any kind of balance. As we have written before, we expect the labor supply picture to resolve slowly over time rather than all at once
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 25 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 28, 2020
Existing home sales rose 2.4% to a 6.0-million unit annual pace. The surge in sales further depleted inventories and pushed prices sharply higher.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 18, 2021
Retail sales fell 0.7% in December, the third straight monthly decline. Sales are still up 2.9% over the year, however.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 21 October 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Oct 25, 2022
The real estate sector has been significantly affected by rising interest rates, with total housing starts falling 8.1% in September. Peering ahead, the forward-looking Leading Economic Index points to a recession in the coming year.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 29, 2023
The FOMC hiked the federal funds rate by 25 bps on Wednesday amid continued strength in the labor market and elevated inflation.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 April 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 27, 2020
Oil prices went negative for the first time in history on Monday as the evaporation of demand collided with a supply glut. In the past five weeks, 26.5 million people have filed for unemployment insurance, or more than one out of every seven workers.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 10, 2024
The Federal Reserve can afford patience thanks to a resilient labor market. During April, total nonfarm payrolls rose by 175,000 net jobs, continuing a string of solid monthly payroll additions.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 July 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jul 18, 2020
Two countervailing themes competed for attention this week in financial markets. The first is that for the most part, economic data continue to surprise to the upside and do not yet rule out prospects for that elusive V-shaped recovery.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 November 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 24, 2020
The international economic news over the past week has been somewhat mixed. On the positive side, China’s October data showed ongoing growth in manufacturing and firming retail and service sector activity.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 18 March 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 21, 2022
it was a big week for economic news as the Astros allowed the TWINS of all teams to sign Carlos Correa to the type of short-term deal that the Astros have historically been open to.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 24 February 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 28, 2023
Existing home sales declined 0.7% in January, while new home sales leaped 7.2%. Real personal spending shot higher in January, and solid growth in discretionary spending suggests continued consumer resilience.
