U.S - Looking Back at a Soft Q3
- Sales of existing homes fell 2.2% to a 5.38 million-unit pace in September, but sales and prices were still up enough in the quarter that they will add solidly to Q3 GDP growth.
- Overall durable goods orders fell 1.1% in September, reflecting weak demand for aircraft and motor vehicles. Boeing's issues and the GM strike are becoming more apparent in the macro data and are likely to become increasingly so in coming weeks.
- Sales of new homes fell 0.7% to a 701,000-unit pace in September from a revised 706,000-unit pace the prior month. With mortgage rates down more than a percentage point from last year, housing is set to become a more positive force.
Global - The Big Ease-ing
- The global easing theme was at the forefront this week with rate cuts from several central banks. Turkey's central bank lowered its policy rate 2.50 percentage points, while central banks in Chile, Indonesia and Russia cut rates 0.25%-0.50%.
- The European Central Bank held monetary policy steady this week, but further easing seems likely at some point. Eurozone October PMIs surprised to the downside, while Q3 GDP growth is expected to slow further from an already sluggish Q2 pace.
- In Canada, PM Trudeau's Liberal Party won the most seats in this week's election, but fell short of the number needed for an outright majority.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 10 March 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 14, 2023
Financial markets were looking for validation that January\'s unexpected strength was not a fluke and that the downward slide in economic momentum experienced late last year had stabilized.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 14 April 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 20, 2023
In March retail sales fell 1.0%, manufacturing production slipped 0.5% and the consumer price index rose a modest 0.1%.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 February 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Feb 10, 2021
Nonfarm employment rebounded in January, with employers adding 49,000 jobs following the prior month\'s 227,000-job drop.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 March 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Mar 08, 2022
February\'s employment data showed the economy had strong momentum, but that seems pretty dated now with Russia\'s invasion of Ukraine and the Fed\'s shift to a more hawkish tone on monetary policy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 03 June 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 08, 2022
While talk of recession has kicked up in recent weeks, the majority of economic data remain consistent with modest growth.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 November 2019
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 23, 2019
Minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated the Fed is content to remain on the sidelines for the rest of this year as the looser financial conditions resulting from rate cuts at three consecutive meetings feed through to the economy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 27 January 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 28, 2023
Real GDP expanded at a 2.9% annualized pace in Q4. While beating expectations, the underlying details were not as encouraging. Moreover, the weakening monthly indicator performances to end the year suggest the decelerating trend will continue in Q1.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 January 2025
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 20, 2025
The Consumer Price Index ended the year at 2.9% year-over-year, which is a minor improvement from its 3.1% rate in January 2024 and points to stalled progress on the road back to the Federal Reserve\'s 2% inflation target.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 17 May 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 23, 2024
The Producer Price Index (PPI) was a bit firm in April, rising 0.5% amid higher services prices, though it did come with slight downward revisions to prior month\'s data.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 20 May 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 29, 2022
U.S. retail sales topped expectations in April, while industrial production also grew more rapidly than economists expected. Data on housing starts, home sales and homebuilder sentiment, however, showed tentative signs of cooling.
