U.S - A Tough Week
- The COVID-19 coronavirus hammered financial markets this week and rapidly raised the perceived likelihood and magnitude of additional Fed accommodation.
- The bond market now expects almost four Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, but one might rightly wonder how lower short-term rates would alleviate supply chain disruptions.
- We believe the Fed will try to remain patient, and look for a “material” change in the outlook, but if and when the committee decides it needs to ease again, it most likely won’t be just once.
Global - Virus Spreads to Broader Global Economy
- A surge in new cases of coronavirus in Italy and Korea led to further concerns over the impact of the outbreak on global growth, while seemingly ongoing disruptions to Chinese economic activity suggest even further downside to our current forecast for Q1 Chinese GDP growth of 5.1% year-over-year.
- Elsewhere, Canada’s Q4 growth figures were soft as GDP barely grew during the quarter, although the details were more mixed. Perhaps the most important global economic data point of the week is still to come, with China’s official PMIs for February due later today, the first significant release from China that should capture the virus’ economic impact.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 September 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Sep 14, 2020
In the holiday-shortened week, analysts’ attention remained on the progress of the labor market. Recent jobless claims data remain stubbornly high and point to a slowing jobs rebound.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 15 November 2024
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 20, 2024
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.24% in October, the largest unrounded monthly uptick since April. This bump brought the 12-month rate to 2.6%, the first annual acceleration since inflation’s hot streak in Q1.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 16 April 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Apr 17, 2021
Data released this week continue to show that the economic recovery has gained momentum in March. The much anticipated consumer boom has arrived.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 05 May 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 11, 2023
In April, employers added 253K jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%. During the same month, the ISM services index edged up to 51.9, while the ISM manufacturing index improved to 47.1.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 04 November 2022
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Nov 07, 2022
Employers continued to add jobs at a steady clip in October, demonstrating the labor market remains tight and the FOMC will continue to tighten policy.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 01 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 04, 2020
U.S. GDP declined at an annualized rate of 4.8% in the first quarter, only a hint of what is to come in the second quarter.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 02 June 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jun 06, 2023
This week, Congress and the president prevented what would have been the first default in U.S. history by agreeing to suspend the debt ceiling through the end of 2024.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 22 May 2020
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / May 25, 2020
The re-opening of the country is getting underway, with all 50 states starting to roll back restrictions.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 11 August 2023
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Aug 15, 2023
During July, both the headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the core CPI was up 4.7% in July. Recent signs have been more encouraging, with core CPI running at a 3.1% three-month annualized pace.
This Week's State Of The Economy - What Is Ahead? - 08 January 2021
Wells Fargo Economics & Financial Report / Jan 12, 2021
The manufacturing sector is showing a great deal of resilience, with the ISM Manufacturing survey exceeding expectations, at 60.7, and factory orders remaining strong.
